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B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/14/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/24 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 55.9E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/24 18 UTC: 13.7S/55.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/03/25 06 UTC: 13.8S/56.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/03/25 18 UTC: 15.0S/56.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/03/26 06 UTC: 16.7S/55.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/03/26 18 UTC: 19.1S/56.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/03/27 06 UTC: 21.7S/57.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- AND CI=2.0+
QUIKSCAT 0200Z SWATH CONFIRMS A VERY ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH WINDS REACHING THE NEAR GALE FORCE EXCLUSIVELY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIANT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
CENTER IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ONLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SYSTEM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARDS DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS UNDERGOING A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN MALAGASY.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A DEEP AND BROAD POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO, THEREFORE EX-LOLA IS EXPECTED TRACKING SOUTHWARDS.
UNDERGOING TEMPORARELY BETTER ENVIRONEMENTAL CONDITIONS, SYSTEM SHOULD SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY.
BUOY 14903 NEAR THE CENTER AT 0200Z CONFIRMS THE ESTIMATED MSLP.