Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6S / 56.1E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/25 00 UTC: 13.7S/56.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/03/25 12 UTC: 14.7S/56.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/03/26 00 UTC: 16.4S/55.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/03/26 12 UTC: 18.5S/55.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/03/27 00 UTC: 20.9S/57.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/03/27 12 UTC: 23.6S/59.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.0+ LLCC IS TOTALLY EXPOSED. SINCE YESTERDAY AT 1800Z , LOLA HAS STOPPED ITS WESTWARDS MOVE BLOCKED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS FRONT LOCATED OVER THE NORTH OF MALAGASY. SYSTEM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARDS, THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXED ALONG 17S TOWARDS A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HAS THEREFORE WEAKENED. LAST SCATTEROMETRY DATAS (0200Z QUIKSCAT AND 0524Z ASCAT SWATHS) PERMIT HAVING A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH WINDS AT 20/25KT NEAR THE CENTER REACHING VERY LOCALLY 30KT FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THIS SAME AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A DEEP AND BROAD POLAR TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. NWP MODELS DISAGREE TO THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEYOND THE 26 AT 0000Z FOR A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH VERY CLOSED CHRONOLOGY. SYSTEM SHOULD BACK UNDERGO FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE 26TH BEEING BACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXE BUT A RE-INTENSIFICATION TO THE TROPICAL STROM STAGE IN NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.