Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/24 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 56.4E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/25 06 UTC: 15.5S/56.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/03/25 18 UTC: 16.6S/55.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/03/26 06 UTC: 17.8S/56.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/03/26 18 UTC: 19.6S/57.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/03/27 06 UTC: 22.2S/58.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/03/27 18 UTC: 24.2S/60.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.0 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM IS VERY FLUCTUATING IN TIME AND IN SPATIAL COVERAGE. THE TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH HAS LEAD THE SYSTEM WITHIN A DEVAFOURABLE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND THE SYSTEM HAS THEREFORE WEAKENED. QUIKSCAT DATA 1445Z SHOW WINDS AT 20/25KT NEAR THE CENTER REACHING VERY LOCALLY 30KT FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH, DUE TO A BROAD AND DEEP TRANSIENT TROUGH. NWP MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEYOND THE 26 AT 0000Z WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A VERY CLOSED CHRONOLOGY.