Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/25 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 56.5E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/25 12 UTC: 15.3S/56.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/26 00 UTC: 16.5S/56.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/03/26 12 UTC: 17.7S/56.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/03/27 00 UTC: 19.3S/57.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/03/27 12 UTC: 21.4S/59.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/03/28 00 UTC: 23.5S/61.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+ AND CI=2.0+ CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM IS VERY FLUCTUATING IN TIME AND IN SPATIAL COVERAGE, BUT HAS REBUILT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE OVER THE LAST HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO WEAKEN. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH, DUE TO A BROAD AND DEEP TRANSIENT TROUGH. NWP MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEYOND THE 26 AT 0000Z WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A VERY CLOSE TIME SCENARIO.