Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/25 AT 0600 UTC : 15.5S / 55.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 120 SO: 060 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/25 18 UTC: 16.3S/55.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/26 06 UTC: 17.6S/55.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/03/26 18 UTC: 19.2S/56.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/03/27 06 UTC: 21.3S/58.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/03/27 18 UTC: 23.1S/59.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/03/28 06 UTC: 24.8S/61.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CORRECTIVE FOR THE TEXT ON THE 2.B PART T=CI=2.5- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM IS VERY FLUCTUATING IN TIME AND IN SPATIAL COVERAGE; IT HAS REBUILT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRE DURING LAST NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO WEAKEN LIGHTLY. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS LIGHLTLY BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS CONFIGURATION HASN'T CHANGED A LOT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH NEXT NIGHT, DUE TO A BROAD AND DEEP TRANSIENT TROUGH. NWP MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEYOND THE 25 AT 1200Z WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A VERY CLOSE TIME SCENARIO.