Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/25 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 56.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/26 00 UTC: 17.1S/56.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/26 12 UTC: 18.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/03/27 00 UTC: 20.2S/57.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/03/27 12 UTC: 21.7S/58.8E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/03/28 00 UTC: 23.0S/59.9E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/03/28 12 UTC: 24.7S/61.4E EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+ AND CI=2.0+ THE CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN LIGHTLY RELOCATED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INTENSITY. THE CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND MORE AND MORE BADLY DEFINED, ALMOST-STATIONNARY DURING ALMOST THE LAST 36 HOURS, AND IS TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTH OF THE THUNDERY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS PUSHED SOUTHWARDS. THIS THUNDERY ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING IN SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIME. WINDS ARE WEAK NEAR THE CENTER, MORE SUSTAINED SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE METOP/ASCAT DATA AT 0503Z. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH NEXT NIGHT, DUE TO A BROAD AND DEEP TRANSIENT TROUGH. AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A VERY CLOSE TIME SCENARIO.