Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 56.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/26 06 UTC: 17.4S/56.6E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/03/26 18 UTC: 19.0S/57.2E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/03/27 06 UTC: 20.7S/58.2E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/03/27 18 UTC: 22.3S/59.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/03/28 06 UTC: 23.8S/60.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/03/28 18 UTC: 24.7S/61.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+ AND CI=2.0+ THE CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND MORE AND MORE POORLY DEFINED. LLCC IS TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTH OF THE THUNDERY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS PUSHED SOUTHWARDS. WINDS ARE WEAK NEAR THE CENTER, MORE SUSTAINED SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA AT 1420Z. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH NEXT NIGHT, DUE TO A BROAD AND DEEP TRANSIENT TROUGH. AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A VERY CLOSE TIME SCENARIO. ENVIRONMENT IS FORECASTED TO BE MORE AND MORE UNFAVOURABLE, DUE TO A STRONGER AND STRONGER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (NORTHWEATERLY THEN WESTERLY, REFEER TO ECMWF 300 HPA WIND FIELD) , THEREFORE RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOT EXPECTED.