Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4S / 56.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/26 12 UTC: 19.2S/57.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/03/27 00 UTC: 20.9S/58.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/03/27 12 UTC: 22.4S/59.3E, MAX WIND=020KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/03/28 00 UTC: 23.8S/60.8E, MAX WIND=025KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/03/28 12 UTC: 24.9S/62.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/03/29 00 UTC: 25.7S/64.5E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.0+ 1746Z METOP AND 2123Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LLCC IS MORE AND MORE POORLY DEFINED AND THAT IT HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARDS. HEAVY RAINY AND THUNDERY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FLUCTUATING BUT NOW MORE CLOSED TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PROBABLY DUE TO THE USUAL NIGHT CONVECTIVE BURST. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HOWEVER STAYS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MORE INTENSIFY OVER MAURITIUS ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS. 1734Z ASCAT SWATH CONFIRMS WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTER, MORE SUSTAINED SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARDS WITHIN THE RECENT PAST HOURS TOWARDS A DEEP AND BROAD POLAR TROUGH IN THE SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO. ENVIRONMENT IS FORECASTED TO BE MORE AND MORE UNFAVOURABLE, DUE TO A STRONGER AND STRONGER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (NORTHWEATERLY THEN WESTERLY, REFEER TO ECMWF 300 HPA WIND FIELD) , THEREFORE RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOT EXPECTED.