Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/26 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 56.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/26 18 UTC: 20.2S/57.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/03/27 06 UTC: 21.8S/58.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/03/27 18 UTC: 23.1S/60.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/03/28 06 UTC: 25.0S/61.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/03/28 18 UTC: 26.5S/62.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/03/29 06 UTC: 27.1S/63.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 AND CI=2.0 LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS/0414Z) SHOW A VERY ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE LLCC (A SMALL CIRCULATION IS VISIBLE NEAR 16.5S/55.4E, ANOTHER ONE NEAR 18.6S/55.7E AND ANOTHER ONE NEAR 18.6S/58E). THE MAIN CENTER, THAT IS MORE TO THE SOUTH EAST, IS STILL VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE EVEN WITH THIS KIND OF IMAGERY. QUICKSCATT PASS AT 0248Z STILL DEPICT THIS MAIN CENTER AND CONFIRMED THE WEAKNESS OF THE WINDFIELD. PRESENT FIX IS BAED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM LATEST MICROWAVE FIX AND ESTIMATION OF THE BARYCENTRE OF THIS COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AREA. HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MAURITIUS ISLAND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE AN IMPROVMENT NEXT NIGHT. PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED YET FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL CENTER SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS A DEEP AND BROAD POLAR TROUGH IN THE SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO. ENVIRONMENT IS FORECASTED TO BE MORE AND MORE UNFAVOURABLE, DUE TO A STRONGER AND STRONGER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (NORTHWEATERLY THEN WESTERLY, REFEER TO ECMWF 300 HPA WIND FIELD) , THEREFORE RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOT EXPECTED.