Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/1/20082009 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1 2.A POSITION 2008/10/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6S / 75.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/07 00 UTC: 13.6S/73.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/10/07 12 UTC: 13.9S/71.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/10/08 00 UTC: 14.1S/69.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/10/08 12 UTC: 14.4S/67.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/10/09 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/10/09 12 UTC: 16.6S/64.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0- WITHIN A LARGE FLUCTUATING AND INORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AREA EXISTING NORTH OF 16S AND EAST OF 73E, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED WITHIN THE LAST 12 HOURS IN A LITTLE CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC MONITORED SINCE A FEW DAYS (CF AMSU 89 GHZ 0442Z METOP AND 0851Z NOAA18 SWATHS). OUTSIDE OF THE LAST NIGHT ASCAT AND QUIKSCAT SWATHS , WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE ESTIMATED AT 20KT REACHING 25KT AND VERY LOCALLY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMETAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ARE HIGHER THAN USUAL SO MSLP IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 HPA. VERTICAL ENVIRONMENT IS LIGHTLY FAVOURABLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND RATHER GOOD DIVERGENCE) BUT IS EXPECTED TO STAY LIMITED LINKED TO A POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW FORECASTED TO WEAK TOMORROW AS A POLAR TROUGH SHIPPING IN THE SOUTH. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS WITHOUT DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS STAGE OF INTENSITY , SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.