Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/1/20082009 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1 2.A POSITION 2008/10/07 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 72.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/08 00 UTC: 13.7S/70.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/10/08 12 UTC: 14.7S/68.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/10/09 00 UTC: 16.1S/66.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/10/09 12 UTC: 17.3S/64.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/10/10 00 UTC: 17.2S/62.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2008/10/10 12 UTC: 17.0S/58.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5- CURRENT MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 260/7. OVERALL PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCALISATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. ASCAT AND QUIKSCAT SWATHS OF THIS MORNING SHOW SOME WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTER IN THE 05/15 KT RANGE. THEY REACH 20/25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONSEQUENTLY, SYSTEM IS GENEROUSLY ANALYSED AT 20 KT ... CURRENT MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 260/7 AS SST ARE UNDER THE 26°C THRESHOLD SOUTH OF 13S AND THE ENVIRONMENTALS CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVOURABLE, THIS LOW HAS QUASI NO POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGHENING. HOWEVER IT SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS OR SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CURVE THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE STRENGHEN SOMEWHAT. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOW THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE EUROPEAN AND FRENCH MODEL CONSENSUS, JUST A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH. MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD BE INTERESTED BY A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS, ASOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM, STARTING FROM THURSDAY FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND AND FROM FRIDAY FOR THE MAURICE / REUNION AREA. AT THIS STAGE OF INTENSITY , SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.