Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/1/20082009 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1 2.A POSITION 2008/10/08 AT 0600 UTC : 14.0S / 70.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 15 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 350 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/08 18 UTC: 14.1S/69.2E, MAX WIND=015KT , DISSIPATING. 24H: 2008/10/09 06 UTC: 14.8S/68.0E, MAX WIND=015KT , DISSIPATING. 36H: 2008/10/09 18 UTC: 15.4S/66.5E, MAX WIND=015KT , DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCALISATED AT MORE THEN 70 MN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. QUIKSCAT SWATH OF THIS MORNING SHOW SOME WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTER IN THE 05/15 KT RANGE. THEY REACH 20/25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS SST ARE UNDER THE 26°C THRESHOLD SOUTH OF 13S AND THE ENVIRONMENTALS CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVOURABLE, THIS LOW HAS QUASI NO POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGHENING. HOWEVER IT SHOULD GO ON DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS OR SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD BE INTERESTED BY A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS, ASOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM, STARTING FROM THURSDAY FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND AND FROM FRIDAY FOR THE MAURICE / REUNION AREA. LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.