Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2008/10/16 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1S / 69.2E (SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/17 00 UTC: 06.6S/69.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/10/17 12 UTC: 07.1S/68.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/10/18 00 UTC: 08.0S/68.0E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/10/18 12 UTC: 09.0S/67.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/10/19 00 UTC: 10.0S/66.3E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/10/19 12 UTC: 11.0S/65.2E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ EVEN IF DEEP CONVECTION STILL DEPENDS ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE (ENHANCING DURING THE NIGHT AND WEAKENING DURING THE DAY), THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION (WITH COMPACT CURVED BAND PATTERN) HAS PERSISTED RATHER WELL DURING THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS IMPROVING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A LIGHT INTENSIFICATION. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE, DIVERGENCE IS FAVORABLE AND SST ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. NORTHWARDS, EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ARE ENFANCED BY THE ACTUAL WET PHASIS OF MJO AND THE TWIN CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTESITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.