Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2008/10/17 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.4S / 68.3E (FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/17 12 UTC: 05.7S/67.5E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/10/18 00 UTC: 06.4S/66.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/10/18 12 UTC: 07.0S/65.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/10/19 00 UTC: 07.7S/65.2E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/10/19 12 UTC: 08.4S/64.5E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/10/20 00 UTC: 09.1S/63.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ EVEN IF DEEP CONVECTION STILL DEPENDS ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE (ENHANCING DURING THE NIGHT AND WEAKENING DURING THE DAY),CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY INCREASE IN THE END OF DAY, THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS IMPROVING. HOWEVER THE CENTER REMAINS UNDER THE NORTH-EASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A LIGHT INTENSIFICATION. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE BECOMING WEAK TO MODERATE END OF THE PERIOD, DIVERGENCE IS FAVORABLE AND SST ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. NORTHWARDS, EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ARE ENFANCED BY THE ACTUAL WET PHASIS OF MJO AND THE TWIN CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.