Back to the RSMC advisories list

Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

---

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2008/10/17 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.3S / 68.4E
(SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/17 18 UTC: 07.0S/68.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/10/18 06 UTC: 07.8S/67.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/10/18 18 UTC: 08.4S/66.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/19 06 UTC: 09.3S/65.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/10/19 18 UTC: 10.0S/64.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/10/20 06 UTC: 10.7S/63.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+

THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE APPEARS IN THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION, DUE TO A PERSISTANT MODERATE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. LLCC APPEARS POORLIER DEFINED ON THE 17/0300z F17/SSMI DATA AND THE MET7 ANIMATED IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS, WESTERLIES EQUTORWARD - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE EASTERLIES OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, SST ARE OF THE ORDER OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE UP TO TAU 36, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE TO AN INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER RATHER SLOW.