Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2008/10/17 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.7S / 68.6E (SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/18 00 UTC: 07.5S/68.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/10/18 12 UTC: 08.7S/67.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/10/19 00 UTC: 09.8S/66.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/10/19 12 UTC: 10.8S/65.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/10/20 00 UTC: 11.9S/63.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/10/20 12 UTC: 12.4S/62.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED IN THE EASTERN SECTOR OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTRE ON THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGES. THE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, CURRENTLY STRONG, SHOULD DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, SSTS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT NORTH OF 13S). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE TO AN INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER RATHER SLOW. THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE WEAK TO MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTERLIES. WITHIN THIS ENVIRONEMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY DRIFT RATHER SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE FORECAST IS ISSUED FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP.