Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2008/10/18 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 69.1E (EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/18 18 UTC: 10.4S/68.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/10/19 06 UTC: 11.5S/67.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/10/19 18 UTC: 12.2S/66.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/10/20 06 UTC: 12.6S/64.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/10/20 18 UTC: 13.0S/63.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 13.2S/62.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT IS LOOSING ITS ORGANIZATION AND IS LESS AND LESS WELL DEFINED. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD, BUT THE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR REMAINS STRONG FOR THE MOMENT. THIS WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SST ARE NEAR 27/28 DEGREES CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT NORTH OF 13S). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE WEAK TO MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTERLIES. WITHIN THIS ENVIRONEMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY DRIFT RATHER SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE FORECAST IS ISSUED FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP AND REMAINS CLOSED OF THE EUROPEAN ECMWF SCENARIO.