Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2008/10/18 AT 1200 UTC : 8.7S / 67.7E (EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: SO: 150 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/19 00 UTC: 09.8S/66.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/10/19 12 UTC: 10.9S/65.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/10/20 00 UTC: 11.8S/64.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/10/20 12 UTC: 12.6S/62.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/10/21 00 UTC: 12.9S/60.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/10/21 12 UTC: 12.9S/58.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE DISTORSION OF THE LLCC AT THE END OF THE LAST NIGHT HAS LEAD TO THE RE-DEFINITION OF THIS LLCC, WHICH HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE WESTWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD, BUT THE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR REMAINS STRONG FOR THE MOMENT. THIS WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SST ARE NEAR 27/28 DEGREES CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT NORTH OF 13S). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE DOMINATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTERLIES. WITHIN THIS ENVIRONEMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY DRIFT RATHER SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE FORECAST IS ISSUED FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP AND REMAINS CLOSED OF THE EUROPEAN ECMWF SCENARIO.