Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2008/10/18 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 67.0E (EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/19 06 UTC: 10.0S/65.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/10/19 18 UTC: 11.3S/64.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/10/20 06 UTC: 12.3S/62.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/10/20 18 UTC: 12.8S/61.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 12.9S/59.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 12.8S/57.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED (F117/SSMIS 1527Z). THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD, BUT THE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR REMAINS CURRENTLY STRONG. THIS WINDSHEAR SHOULD SLIGHTLY DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SST ARE ABOUT 27/28 DEGREES CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT UP TO NORTH OF 13S). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTERLIES, WHICH IS GOING TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AT TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GLOBALLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN TRACK WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP AND REMAINS CLOSED OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL SCENARIO.