Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2008/10/19 AT 0600 UTC : 10.4S / 65.6E (TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/19 18 UTC: 11.5S/64.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/10/20 06 UTC: 12.4S/62.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/10/20 18 UTC: 12.8S/61.0E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 12.9S/59.5E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 12.7S/58.1E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/10/22 06 UTC: 12.2S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE LLCC SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD, THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED. THIS WINDSHEAR SHOULD KEEP ON SLIGHTLY DECREASING WITHIN THE NEXT RANGES. SST ARE ABOUT 27/28 DEGREES CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT UP TO NORTH OF 13S). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTERLIES, WHICH IS GOING TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW UP TO TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GLOBALLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN TRACK WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP AND REMAINS CLOSED OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL SCENARIO.