Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2008/10/19 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 64.0E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/20 00 UTC: 12.1S/62.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/10/20 12 UTC: 12.5S/61.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/10/21 00 UTC: 12.7S/59.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/10/21 12 UTC: 12.6S/57.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/10/22 00 UTC: 12.3S/55.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/10/22 12 UTC: 12.1S/52.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE LLCC SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PORRLY ORGANIZED. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS BEEN DECREASING. SST ARE ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS (OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS QUITE SUFFICIENT UP TO NORTH OF 12S), BUT BECOME COLDER SOUTHWARDS AND WESTWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL IS BECOMING MORE LIMITED. THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; EQUATORWARD WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES - ENHANCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVE MJO PHASIS AND THE TWIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTERLIES, WHICH IS GOING TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW UP TO TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GLOBALLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN TRACK WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.