Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/2/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA) 2.A POSITION 2008/10/19 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3S / 63.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/20 06 UTC: 12.1S/62.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/10/20 18 UTC: 12.6S/60.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 12.6S/58.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 12.4S/56.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/10/22 06 UTC: 12.3S/54.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/10/22 18 UTC: 12.2S/51.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ RECENT METEOSAT AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SEE SSMIS AT 1514Z) SHOW AN IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION (WITH CURVED BAND PATTERN), DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE LLCC IS IN BETTER PHASIS WITH THE MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION, EVEN IF IT IS STILL A LITTLE BIT SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. IN HIGH LEVELS,THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD, AND THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN AGAIN DURING THE NEXT DAYS (WHILE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ALONG AN AXIS OF A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST). NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY AN INSUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT (SST ARE ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR THE MOMENT, NORTH OF 11SOUTH, BUT THEY SHOULD BE AT AROPUND 26 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 12SOUTH). ASMA SHOULD CURVE MORE WESTWARDS ITS TRACK, OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, AND IT SHOULD TRACK TOXWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.