Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/2/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA) 2.A POSITION 2008/10/20 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 62.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/20 12 UTC: 12.7S/61.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/10/21 00 UTC: 12.9S/59.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/10/21 12 UTC: 12.6S/57.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/10/22 00 UTC: 12.5S/55.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/10/22 12 UTC: 12.5S/53.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/10/23 00 UTC: 12.5S/51.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- ASMA IS STILL INTENSIFYING DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY AMSU-B AT 2104Z SHOWS A MIDLEVEL EYE BUILDING WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS STILL SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. IN HIGH LEVELS,THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD, AND THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN AGAIN DURING THE NEXT DAYS (WHILE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ALONG AN AXIS OF A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST). NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY AN INSUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT (SST ARE ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR THE MOMENT, NORTH OF 11SOUTH, BUT THEY SHOULD BE AT AROPUND 26 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 12SOUTH). ASMA SHOULD CURVE MORE WESTWARDS ITS TRACK, OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, AND IT SHOULD TRACK TOXWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.