Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/2/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA) 2.A POSITION 2008/10/20 AT 0600 UTC : 12.7S / 61.8E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SO: 350 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/20 18 UTC: 12.9S/60.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 12.6S/58.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 12.2S/56.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/10/22 06 UTC: 12.0S/53.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/10/22 18 UTC: 12.0S/51.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/10/23 06 UTC: 12.2S/49.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 CI=3.5- WITH THE DECREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, ASMA HAS INTENSIFIED OVER LAST NIGHT, REVEALING A BANDING EYE TYPE ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AQUA/2132Z AND F17/0131Z, MID LEVEL CENTER REMAINING YET SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN, LEADING TO A DVORAK NUMBER T3.0. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD, AND THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO KEEP ON DECREASING DURING THE NEXT DAYS (AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS - RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST). NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY AN INSUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT (SST ARE CURRETNLY ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS, NORTH OF 11S, BUT THEY SHOULD BE AT AROUND 26 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 12S). ASMA SHOULD TRACK WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.