Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/2/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA) 2.A POSITION 2008/10/20 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 61.4E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 300 SO: 400 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/21 06 UTC: 11.7S/59.3E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 11.5S/56.7E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/10/22 06 UTC: 11.4S/54.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/10/22 18 UTC: 11.6S/52.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/10/23 06 UTC: 12.2S/49.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/10/23 18 UTC: 12.9S/47.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 CI=3.0 THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AQUA 20/0939 REVEALS A LLCC CENTRE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS VERY LIMITED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD, AND THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO KEEP ON DECREASING DURING THE NEXT DAYS, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS - RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE LIMITED BY INSUFFICIENT SSTS (OF THE ORDER OF 26°C). AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARDS, THE OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL DECREASES AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY, ESSENTIALLY BEYOND TAU24. ASMA TRACKS WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.