Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ASMA) 2.A POSITION 2008/10/21 AT 0600 UTC : 12.1S / 59.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/21 18 UTC: 12.1S/56.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/10/22 06 UTC: 12.1S/54.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/10/22 18 UTC: 12.1S/51.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/10/23 06 UTC: 12.1S/49.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/10/23 18 UTC: 12.1S/47.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2008/10/24 06 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UNFAVORABLE FACTORS : LACK OF OCEAN CONTENT HEAT (TOO COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPARATURES, AT THE ORDER OF 26 CELSIUS DEGREES ONLY), INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IN HIGH LEVEL, POOR LOW LEVEL WARM AND WET TROPICAL AIR INFLOW IN THE NORTHERN PART. SO, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS) IS WEAKENING AND IS REJECTED SOUTHEASTWARD, FAR FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY DISYMETRIC , WITH STRONG WINDS LOCATED ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, MAINLY FAR FROM THE CENTER, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO TNE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE MSLP (MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE) IS ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE 53579 BUOY, WHICH HAS BEEN "CROSSED" BY THE LOW AT 00 UTC. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT SHOULD TOTALLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.