Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA) 2.A POSITION 2008/10/21 AT 1800 UTC : 11.0S / 57.2E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/22 06 UTC: 10.9S/54.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/10/22 18 UTC: 11.0S/52.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/10/23 06 UTC: 11.5S/50.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2008/10/23 18 UTC: 11.7S/47.7E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.0+ CI=1.5 IR IMAGERY NOAA17 21/1747Z ALLOWS TO LOCATE PRECISELY THE CENTRE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SSMIS 21/1356Z SHOWS A LLCC RATHER WELL DEFINED WITH AN OBVIOUS CENTRE, AND WITHOUT ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY WEAKENING WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONEMENT: AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR (SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE), A POOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND A WEAK EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE LLCC IS FULLY ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONG WINDS LOCATED ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, FAR FROM THE CENTER, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. WIND EXTENSION IS ESTIMATED WITH SATELLITE DATA. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.