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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/2/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA)
2.A POSITION 2008/10/22 AT 0000 UTC :
10.8S / 56.0E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.5 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
IR IMAGERY NOAA18 21/2232Z ALLOWS TO LOCATE PRECISELY THE CENTRE. THE CENTRE HAS TRACKED IN THE SOUTHERN VICINITY OF AGALEGA (TO A DISTANCE LESS THAN 30 NM AT ABOUT 21Z) WHICH HAS MEASURED A MSLP CLOSE TO 1003 HPA (WITH BAROMETRIC TIDE CORRECTION).
THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY WEAKENING WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONEMENT: AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR (SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE), A POOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND A WEAK EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW.
THE LLCC IS FULLY ASYMMETRIC, WITHOUT ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH STRONG WINDS ONLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, FAR FROM THE CENTER, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. WIND EXTENSION IS ESTIMATED WITH SATELLITE DATA.
THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.