Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA) 2.A POSITION 2008/10/22 AT 0600 UTC : 11.1S / 54.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/22 18 UTC: 10.8S/52.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/10/23 06 UTC: 10.7S/50.3E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2008/10/23 18 UTC: 10.8S/48.4E DISSIPATING. 48H: 2008/10/24 06 UTC: 10.9S/46.1E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.0 CI=1.5- THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY WEAKENING WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONEMENT: A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR (SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE), A POOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND A WEAK EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE LLCC IS FULLY ASYMMETRIC, WITHOUT ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH STRONG WINDS ONLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, FAR FROM THE CENTER, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. WIND EXTENSION IS ESTIMATED WITH SATELLITE DATA. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS REGENERATION.