Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA) 2.A POSITION 2008/10/22 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 50.5E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: SO: 150 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/23 06 UTC: 10.3S/49.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/10/23 18 UTC: 09.8S/47.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/10/24 06 UTC: 10.7S/44.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/10/24 18 UTC: 10.2S/42.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/10/25 06 UTC: 09.3S/40.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 DESPITE REMANENT NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, DEEP CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOURS, DUE TO LIGHTLY WARMER SSTS (26 TO 27 CELSIUS DEGREES) AND NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION. THIS CIRCULATION REMAINS ASYMETRIC , WITH STRONG WINDS ONLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, AND TO THE ACCELERATION NEAR THE MALAGASY COASTS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK NORTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALLS AND TEMPORARY INCREASING WINDS (30 TO 35KT IN 10 MIN MEAN WINDS) OVER THE NORTHEN TIP OF THE ISLAND.