Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA) 2.A POSITION 2008/10/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 50.0E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/23 12 UTC: 11.0S/48.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/10/24 00 UTC: 11.3S/45.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/10/24 12 UTC: 11.2S/43.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/10/25 00 UTC: 10.9S/41.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/10/25 12 UTC: 08.5S/36.4E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5- ET CI=2.0 THE BURST OF "NOCTRUNAL" CONVECTION (CCC STRUCTURE) STARTED AT THE END OF YESTERDAY, HAS EXPLOSED AND IS NOW SCATTERED AND NON ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHEN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THIS CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK AND ASYMETRIC , WITH STRONG WINDS ONLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, AND TO THE ACCELERATION EFFECT NEAR THE MALAGASY COASTS. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALLS AND TEMPORARY INCREASING WINDS (30 TO 35KT) OVER THE NORTHEN TIP OF THE ISLAND DURING NEXT 24H. IT SHOULD GENERATE VARIABLE THUNDERY ACTIVITY, MORE INTENSE DURING THE NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY, WITHOUT RE-INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. THE LOCATION AND THE INTENSITY OF THIS BADLY DEFINED LOW IS ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LAST RELIABLE POSITION, BUT IS NOT VERY PRECISE (BECAUSE THE TERRESTRIAL OBSERVATIONS DATA ARE NOT AVALAIBLE). AT THIS INTENSITY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.