Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA) 2.A POSITION 2008/10/23 AT 0600 UTC : 10.7S / 49.9E (TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/23 18 UTC: 11.5S/47.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/10/24 06 UTC: 11.8S/45.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2008/10/24 18 UTC: 11.3S/42.3E FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/10/25 06 UTC: 10.7S/40.3E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5- ET CI=1.5 POSITION AT 0000Z RELOCATED NEAR 10.4S/50.8E (ONE DEGREE IN THE NORTH-EAST). THE CONVECTION BURST (CCC PATTERN) STARTED YESTERDAY EVENING, HAS EXPLODED AND IS NOW SCATTERED AND INORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHEN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FLUCTUATING, DEEPER DURING THE NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY. THE LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED AND REMAINS WEAK AND ASYMETRIC, WITH STRONG WINDS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM (QUIKSCAT DATA 23/0311Z). THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING WESTWARDS, GENERATING RAINFALLS - LOCALLY THUNDERY RAINFALLS- AND TEMPORARY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE NORTHEN TIP OF MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 12H, AND THEN OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO DURING THE NIGHT AND THE 24TH, BEFORE LIKELY LANDFALLING NEAR THE MOZAMBIC/TANZANIAN BORDERLINE DURING THE NIGHT FROM THE 24TH TO THE 25TH. AT THIS INTENSITY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.