Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/2/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA) 2.A POSITION 2008/10/23 AT 1200 UTC : 11.2S / 48.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/10/24 00 UTC: 11.2S/46.4E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2008/10/24 12 UTC: 10.7S/43.4E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2008/10/25 00 UTC: 09.7S/40.2E FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/10/25 12 UTC: 08.0S/37.5E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.0 ET CI=1.5 THE LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED AND BECOMES DISORGANIZED ON THE LAST IMAGERY. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ASYMETRIC, WITH STRONGER WINDS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FLUCTUATING, DEEPER DURING THE NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING WESTWARDS, GENERATING RAINFALLS - LOCALLY THUNDERY RAINFALLS- AND TEMPORARY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE NORTHEN TIP OF MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT HOURS, AND THEN OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO DURING THE NIGHT AND DURING THE 24TH, BEFORE LIKELY LANDFALLING NEAR THE MOZAMBIC/TANZANIAN BORDERLINE DURING THE NIGHT FROM THE 24TH TO THE 25TH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING, UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.