Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/3/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 2.A POSITION 2008/11/19 AT 0600 UTC : 9.4S / 78.4E (NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONNARY 2 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RAYON OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMV) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/11/19 18 UTC: 09.8S/81.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/11/20 06 UTC: 10.0S/84.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/11/20 18 UTC: 10.0S/87.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/11/21 06 UTC: 09.5S/90.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/11/21 18 UTC: 09.0S/92.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/11/22 06 UTC: 08.0S/93.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ORAGNIZED OVER LAST NIGHT AND SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ; GOOD OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, GOOD LOW LEVEL FEEDING, WEAK WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD HUMIDITY FEEDING. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS, BUT HAS STARTED AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE MODELS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORWARDS WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES WINDS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN EXIT OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEYOND RANGE 48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS. ERRATUM: RMW = 50 KM