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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2008/11/19 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 79.6E
(NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/11/20 00 UTC: 09.8S/82.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/11/20 12 UTC: 09.9S/85.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/11/21 00 UTC: 09.5S/88.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/11/21 12 UTC: 08.9S/90.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/11/22 00 UTC: 08.4S/92.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/11/22 12 UTC: 07.5S/93.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ORAGNIZED OVER LAST NIGHT AND SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN.
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS; SUFFICIENT OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, GOOD LOW LEVEL FEEDING, WEAK WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD HUMIDITY FEEDING. BEYOND, NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARDS AND HAS SLIGHTLY SPED UP OVER THE LAST HOURS. NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORWARDS WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES WINDS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN LEAVE OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEYOND RANGE 48.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.