Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/3/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 2.A POSITION 2008/11/20 AT 0000 UTC : 9.8S / 82.7E (NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/11/20 12 UTC: 09.9S/84.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/11/21 00 UTC: 09.4S/87.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/11/21 12 UTC: 08.6S/90.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/11/22 00 UTC: 07.9S/92.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/11/22 12 UTC: 07.6S/94.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/11/23 00 UTC: 07.4S/95.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM AS A THE STRUCTURE OF A SMALL CDO. THE LLCC LOCATION AS BEEN ESTIMATED (WHITHOUT CERTAINTY) AT THE CENTER OF THIS CDO. THE SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS : SUFFICIENT OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND LOW LEVEL FEEDING, POOR VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, BUT RATHER WEAK OUTFLOW (NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WITH FEW CIRRUS) IN HIGH LEVEL. IT COULD REACH TEMPORARILLY THE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. BEYOND, NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS. NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORWARDS WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES WINDS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS THE 90TH EASTERN PARRALEL ON THE FRIDY 21TH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.