Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/3/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 2.A POSITION 2008/11/20 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 84.2E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST 18 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/11/20 18 UTC: 09.7S/87.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/11/21 06 UTC: 08.7S/89.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/11/21 18 UTC: 08.1S/92.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/11/22 06 UTC: 07.5S/94.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/11/22 18 UTC: 07.4S/95.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/11/23 06 UTC: 07.4S/96.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING EASTWARDS. IT SHOULD CROSS THE 90TH EASTERN MERIDIAN ON THE FRIDAY 21TH. STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE RAPID SYSTEM OWN SPEED AND REACHING PROBABLY 35KT IN THIS AREA. UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONG BUT SYSTEM QUICK EASTWARDS MOVE ALLOWS IT TO KEEP ON INVOLVING WITHIN RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS AND IT COULD REACH, VERY TEMPORARILLY, THE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. BEYOND, UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (MAINLY INTENSIFYING NORTHERLY WINDS) SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS. CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN THANKS TO LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.