Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/3/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERNARD) 2.A POSITION 2008/11/20 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 87.1E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 22 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/11/21 00 UTC: 09.8S/89.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/11/21 12 UTC: 08.7S/92.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/11/22 00 UTC: 08.1S/94.9E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/11/22 12 UTC: 07.9S/97.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ SYSTEM HAS REACHED MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE AND HAS BEEN NAMED "BERNARD". IT IS ACCELERATING EASTWARDS AND SHOULD CROSS THE 90TH EASTERN MERIDIAN WITHIN NEXT NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE RAPID SYSTEM OWN SPEED. UPPER LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONG BUT SYSTEM QUICK EASTWARDS MOVE ALLOWS IT TO KEEP ON INVOLVING WITHIN RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS. BEYOND, UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (MAINLY INTENSIFYING NORTHERLY WINDS) SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS. LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DO NOT ALLOW LOCATING THE LLCC WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. IT SEEMS REMAINING DEPHASED WESTWARD ON THE OBVIOUS UPPER LEVEL ONE.