Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/3/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 (EX-BERNARD) 2.A POSITION 2008/11/20 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 89.2E (TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST 21 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 PLUS /W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/11/21 06 UTC: 09.6S/92.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/11/21 18 UTC: 09.0S/94.3E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2008/11/22 06 UTC: 08.2S/96.4E, MAX WIND=010KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS FULLY DISORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY VANISHED. THIS SPECTACULAR WEAKENING LEADS TO BREAK DVORAK RULES. CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON THE IR IMAGERY. FIX HAS BEEN DONE WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMI 1332Z), THAT EVEN SHOWS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (PARTICULARLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR) SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM STILL TRACKS VERY QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD CROSS THE 90E IN THE NEXT HOURS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS.