Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/3/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 (EX-BERNARD) 2.A POSITION 2008/11/21 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 91.5E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST 22 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/11/21 12 UTC: 10.3S/94.5E DISSIPATED. 24H: 2008/11/22 00 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: OVER THE LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS FULLY DISORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY VANISHED. THIS SPECTACULAR WEAKENING LEADS TO BREAK DVORAK RULES. CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON THE IR IMAGERY. EVEN MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (AQUA 1945Z, TRMM 2116Z) DO NOT SHOW ANY ORGANIZED CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (PARTICULARLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR) SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REINTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM STILL TRACKS VERY QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARINIG ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION. NO MORE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. FOR FURTHER DETAILS, SEE DARWIN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS IDD10210.