Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/4/20082009 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 4 2.A POSITION 2008/12/15 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4S / 69.8E (NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/16 00 UTC: 09.9S/68.3E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/12/16 12 UTC: 10.2S/66.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/12/17 00 UTC: 10.4S/64.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/12/17 12 UTC: 10.7S/63.4E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/12/18 00 UTC: 10.9S/62.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/12/18 12 UTC: 11.2S/61.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5 THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT: WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE AREA, LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS ESTABLISHED POLEWARDS BUT NOT EQUATORWARDS, AND MID LEVELS LACK OF HUMIDITY. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW. THEY TRACK THIS LOW GLOBALLY WESTWARDS WITHOUT DEEPENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.