Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/4/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 2.A POSITION 2008/12/16 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4S / 68.6E (NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/16 12 UTC: 09.6S/67.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/12/17 00 UTC: 09.8S/65.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/12/17 12 UTC: 10.1S/64.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/12/18 00 UTC: 10.4S/63.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/12/18 12 UTC: 10.8S/62.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/12/19 00 UTC: 11.2S/60.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BUILT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE BUT IS FLUCTUATING AND REMAINS SCATTERED. THE SYSTEM BARELY ORGANIZES. THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT: WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARDS BUT WEAK EQUATORWARDS, LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS ESTABLISHED POLEWARDS BUT NOT EQUATORWARDS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW. THEY TRACK THIS LOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, WITHOUT DEEPENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.