Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/4/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 2.A POSITION 2008/12/16 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8S / 67.6E (NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/17 00 UTC: 10.3S/67.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/12/17 12 UTC: 11.1S/66.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/12/18 00 UTC: 11.8S/65.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/12/18 12 UTC: 12.6S/64.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/12/19 00 UTC: 13.2S/63.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/12/19 12 UTC: 13.4S/62.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 OVERALL CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED TODAY (CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH AN AVERAGE 3/10 CURVED BAND). 1010Z TRMM IMAGERY REVEALS A MID LEVEL CENTER AROUND 9.8S/68E EAST OF THE LLCC, THAT IS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE 37 GHZ NEAR 9.8S/67.7E. CURRENT MOTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS AN ESTIMATED: 220/5. THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT: WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARDS BUT WEAK EQUATORWARDS, LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS ESTABLISHED POLEWARDS BUT REMAINS MINIMAL EQUATORWARDS ALTHOUGHT IT HAS SLIGHTY IMPROVED TODAY. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW. TRACKS FROM THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY ON THE LEFT BUT GLOBAL PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED: THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. A WINDOW EXIST FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BECOMES A LITLLE BIT STRONGER.