Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 2.A POSITION 2008/12/16 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.1S / 67.3E (TEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/17 06 UTC: 10.8S/66.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/12/17 18 UTC: 11.5S/65.8E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/12/18 06 UTC: 12.5S/64.9E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/12/18 18 UTC: 13.1S/64.1E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/12/19 06 UTC: 13.4S/63.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/12/19 18 UTC: 13.4S/62.3E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ THE POSITION'S TILT EXISTING BETWEEN THE 37GHZ AND 85GHZ CHANNELS ON TRMM 16/1010Z SWATH SEEMS NOT TO BE SO OBVIOUS ANYMORE (CF 16/1357Z SSMI/F13 AND 16/1448Z SSMIS/F16), SO DOES NOT BEEN SHOWED ON METEOSAT7 VISIBLE ANIMATION. LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN IN CONSEQUENCE LOCATED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CELL EXISTING SINCE 16/1500Z. THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT: WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD BUT WEAK EQUATORWARD, LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS ESTABLISHED POLEWARD BUT REMAINS MINIMAL EQUATORWARD ALTHOUGHT IT HAS SLIGHTY IMPROVED TODAY. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW. TRACKS FROM THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY ON THE LEFT BUT GLOBAL PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED: THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. A WINDOW EXIST FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BECOMES A LITLLE BIT STRONGER. SYSTEM COULD REACH THE MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STAGE.