Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/4/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 2.A POSITION 2008/12/17 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 66.9E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/17 12 UTC: 11.9S/66.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/12/18 00 UTC: 12.7S/65.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/12/18 12 UTC: 13.3S/64.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/12/19 00 UTC: 13.7S/63.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/12/19 12 UTC: 14.1S/62.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/12/20 00 UTC: 14.4S/61.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CELL EXISTING SINCE 16/1500Z HAS PROBABLY ALLOWED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE RECENT PAST 6 HOURS. TRMM 16/2001Z SWATH CONFIMRS AN EXISTING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER UNDER THE MAIN CLUSTER (CF 37H) THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT: WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD BUT WEAK EQUATORWARD, LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS ESTABLISHED POLEWARD BUT REMAINS WEAK EQUATORWARD. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. A WINDOW EXIST FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE NORTHERLY SHEAR BECOMES A LITLLE BIT STRONGER ON THE FRONT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM COULD REACH THE MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STAGE.