Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/4/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 2.A POSITION 2008/12/18 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3S / 66.9E (ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/18 12 UTC: 12.8S/66.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/12/19 00 UTC: 13.4S/65.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/12/19 12 UTC: 13.9S/64.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/12/20 00 UTC: 14.1S/63.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/12/20 12 UTC: 14.6S/62.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/12/21 00 UTC: 15.2S/61.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- DEEP CONVECTION AND COLD CLOUD TOP HAS MAINTAINED DURING THE WHOLE NIGHT NEAR THE LLCC. SO INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 35 KT AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED 'CINDA' BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES OF MAURITIUS AT 00H00 UTC. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS STILL NOT CHANGED: IT IS SLIGHTLY FAVOURABLE . LOCATED BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IT BENEFITS FROM WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WHILE THE UPPER OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO A MODERATELY POTENT POLEWARD CHANNEL (AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST). IT IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE WITH THE STRENGHENING OF NORTHERN TO NORTHWESTERN WINDS AND THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ABOUT THE FORCAST TRACK, IT SEEMS THAT CURRENT STEERING FLOW ARE FROM THE MID-LEVEL (700/500 HPA) WHERE THEY ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE (IT IS EXPLAINING THE CURRENT SOUTHWARDS MOTION). AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN, IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY A MORE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WITH A WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS MOTION TOMORROW.