Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/4/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CINDA) 2.A POSITION 2008/12/18 AT 1200 UTC : 12.9S / 66.8E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 MOINS /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 090 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/19 00 UTC: 13.9S/66.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/12/19 12 UTC: 14.8S/64.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/12/20 00 UTC: 15.2S/63.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/12/20 12 UTC: 15.5S/62.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/12/21 00 UTC: 16.1S/61.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/12/21 12 UTC: 16.8S/60.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5-, CI=3.5 THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITINS, SUFFICIENT TILL NOW - WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (A POLEWARD CHANNEL OUTFLOW EXISTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST) - SHOULD DETERIORATE SHORTLY WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF NORTHERN TO NORTHWESTERN WINDS AND THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MOREOVER LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOT ESTABLISHED AND MOISTURE SUPPLY IS NOT SUFFICIENT. ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK, CURRENT STEERING FLOW SEEMS TO BE THE MID LEVELS - (700/500 HPA), WHICH ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK - AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST (THIS EXPLAINS THE CURRENT SOUTHWARDS MOTION). AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN, IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY A THE LOW LEVELS STEERING FLOWS AND THEN TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS.