Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/4/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CINDA) 2.A POSITION 2008/12/18 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8S / 66.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 200 SO: 240 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/19 06 UTC: 13.9S/66.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/12/19 18 UTC: 15.2S/64.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/12/20 06 UTC: 15.8S/62.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/12/20 18 UTC: 16.4S/61.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/12/21 06 UTC: 17.1S/61.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/12/21 18 UTC: 18.1S/61.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=3.5- SHEARED WEAKENING SYSTEM : LATS MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AQUA 18/0921Z - F17 18/1329Z - F15 18/1432Z) SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROWED OUT FURTHER AND FURTHER IN THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS STRENGTHENING UP ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOREOVER LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOT ESTABLISHED AND MOISTURE SUPPLY IS NOT SUFFICIENT. ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK, CURRENT STEERING FLOW SEEMS TO BE THE MID LEVELS - (700 HPA), WHICH ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK - AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST (THIS EXPLAINS THE CURRENT QUASI-STATIONNARY MOTION). AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN, IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY A THE LOW LEVELS STEERING FLOWS AND THEN TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 18/1319Z QUIKSCAT SWATH.