Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/4/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CINDA) 2.A POSITION 2008/12/19 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 65.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 180 SO: 200 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/19 12 UTC: 14.4S/64.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/12/20 00 UTC: 15.2S/62.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/12/20 12 UTC: 15.9S/61.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/12/21 00 UTC: 16.2S/60.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/12/21 12 UTC: 16.6S/59.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/12/22 00 UTC: 17.1S/59.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=3.0 NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STILL EXISTS AS SHOWED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF NOAA18 AT 18/2038Z BUT HAS WEAKENED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED AWAY NORTHWARDS. A NEW CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CENTER. CINDA HAS HAS TEMPORARELY STOPPED TO WEAKEN. LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOT ESTABLISHED AND MOISTURE SUPPLY IS NOT SUFFICIENT. THE SYSTEM IS NOW STEERED BY A THE LOW LEVELS STEERING FLOWS AND TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS. WITHIN 48H TO 60H, SYSTEM COULD RECURVE SOUTHWARDS OR SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS AS IT UNDERGOES A REBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTHWEST AND ALSO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 18/1652Z ASCAT SWATH.