Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/4/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CINDA) 2.A POSITION 2008/12/19 AT 1200 UTC : 13.7S / 64.9E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 230 SO: 180 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/20 00 UTC: 14.3S/63.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/12/20 12 UTC: 14.8S/62.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/12/21 00 UTC: 15.4S/61.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/12/21 12 UTC: 15.8S/60.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/12/22 00 UTC: 16.2S/60.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/12/22 12 UTC: 16.7S/59.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=3.0 NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STILL EXISTS BUT HAS WEAKENED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED AWAY NORTHWARDS. A NEW CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CENTER. CINDA HAS TEMPORARELY STOPPED TO WEAKEN, THE INTENSITY REMAINS STATIONARY. LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOT ESTABLISHED AND MOISTURE SUPPLY IS NOT SUFFICIENT. THE SYSTEM IS NOW STEERED BY A THE LOW LEVELS STEERING FLOWS AND TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS. QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE AVALAIBLE DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS UNTIL TAU 36, BUT DIVERGENCE BEYOND. WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 19/0137Z QUIKSCAT SWATH.